JOAQ'S F7 POWER RANKINGS
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2016 5:24:18 pmI gave it to the two? of you who viewed it coming into the merge. And here it is again: my power rankings. This is ONLY for winner's chances, not my faves
The Favorite:
1. Sierra: My winner pick from the merge. I think if she gets to the end against almost anyone, she wins. She also has the clearest path to victory in my eyes - her two tightest allies are both goats, and several other players need to align with her in their optimal path to victory. If she survives this F7 vote, I think it's a lock she wins. If she goes up against Hayden and Sugar in the F3, I think it might be a unanimous vote.
The Big Threats
2. Penner: As much as the hosts may hate it, I think if Penner gets to the end, he beats anyone. Too many friends/former allies on the jury and I think the jury respects that he is the one in the game who has made the biggest, backstabbing moves (they went nuts over him voting for Nate even though Nate played the idol on him). He also has a great understanding of Survivor. The reason I have not put him #1 is because I have a hard time coming up with a reasonable path to get to the end, both connections wise and because everyone sees him as the threat he is.
3/4. Ozzy and Heidi: I think it's a toss up if these two are next to each other, they have both been big players the whole game and been very visible. I think Penner would beat them in an F3 of them three, but they are better at challenges/have a slightly easier path to the end.
The "They Can Win If They Grab the Game By the Balls and Cut their Ally"
5/6. Tammy and Hayden: If they play the games they've been playing so far and get to the end, I think they are goats, as they are probably perceived as followers of Heidi and Sierra respectively. However, I think if they take try to take control here the ball is in their court. Tammy, if she is willing to cut Heidi this round and ride Sierra/Hayden/Sugar to F4, win final immunity and cut Sierra would win in that scenario I think. Additionally, I think if Hayden cut Sierra this round, at F6 the two other pairs (Heidi/Tammy and Penner/Ozzy) will compete for his vote as he and Sugar will be perceived as beatable. However, if here he cuts Heidi and then brings Tammy and Sugar to the end I think would win for dominating the end game. These plots also assume that if one starts playing, the other doesn't, and that they would get credit for cutting their allies.
The Goat
7. Sugar: This isn't to say I don't like Sugar. I think she's entertaining as hell in tribals and gives no fucks, and is refreshing on this season. But she isn't playing the type of game that would be respected by the jury, I'm afraid. Hopefully she'll make it to the end and just shit on everyone at final tribal.
The Favorite:
1. Sierra: My winner pick from the merge. I think if she gets to the end against almost anyone, she wins. She also has the clearest path to victory in my eyes - her two tightest allies are both goats, and several other players need to align with her in their optimal path to victory. If she survives this F7 vote, I think it's a lock she wins. If she goes up against Hayden and Sugar in the F3, I think it might be a unanimous vote.
The Big Threats
2. Penner: As much as the hosts may hate it, I think if Penner gets to the end, he beats anyone. Too many friends/former allies on the jury and I think the jury respects that he is the one in the game who has made the biggest, backstabbing moves (they went nuts over him voting for Nate even though Nate played the idol on him). He also has a great understanding of Survivor. The reason I have not put him #1 is because I have a hard time coming up with a reasonable path to get to the end, both connections wise and because everyone sees him as the threat he is.
3/4. Ozzy and Heidi: I think it's a toss up if these two are next to each other, they have both been big players the whole game and been very visible. I think Penner would beat them in an F3 of them three, but they are better at challenges/have a slightly easier path to the end.
The "They Can Win If They Grab the Game By the Balls and Cut their Ally"
5/6. Tammy and Hayden: If they play the games they've been playing so far and get to the end, I think they are goats, as they are probably perceived as followers of Heidi and Sierra respectively. However, I think if they take try to take control here the ball is in their court. Tammy, if she is willing to cut Heidi this round and ride Sierra/Hayden/Sugar to F4, win final immunity and cut Sierra would win in that scenario I think. Additionally, I think if Hayden cut Sierra this round, at F6 the two other pairs (Heidi/Tammy and Penner/Ozzy) will compete for his vote as he and Sugar will be perceived as beatable. However, if here he cuts Heidi and then brings Tammy and Sugar to the end I think would win for dominating the end game. These plots also assume that if one starts playing, the other doesn't, and that they would get credit for cutting their allies.
The Goat
7. Sugar: This isn't to say I don't like Sugar. I think she's entertaining as hell in tribals and gives no fucks, and is refreshing on this season. But she isn't playing the type of game that would be respected by the jury, I'm afraid. Hopefully she'll make it to the end and just shit on everyone at final tribal.