[Kelly Wigles]

- Fri Oct 14, 2016 3:38:03 am #5470 Sup Nate! here are some questions for round 14:

1)How are you feeling so far? There seems to be a lot of treachery abound in this tribe, how are you managing through it?

2)After the craziness of that tribal, could you give me a ranking of the people in the game based on most to least trustworthy?

[Nate]

- Fri Oct 14, 2016 3:59:28 am #5493

Sup Nate! here are some questions for round 14:

1)How are you feeling so far? There seems to be a lot of treachery abound in this tribe, how are you managing through it?

2)After the craziness of that tribal, could you give me a ranking of the people in the game based on most to least trustworthy?

Realised my post count is crazy above everybody else's, which I got too insecure about, but fuck it.

1)
Pretty good! I think the outline I had with the three groups works. I think both Ozzy and Penner plan on taking me to the end with them. Granted, I won't take them to the end with me (maybe Penner, but he needs to show a little less of his asshole side and more of his quiet UTR side in the next ep), but still.

I think I have leverage against Penner in the OGPohnpei side and I think I have leverage against Ozzy in the "seriously, he's so obviously the most likely winner" side.

Sierra is also somebody I feel like I'd need out of the game because everybody likes her, but then again everybody knows that, so that'll be done later down the road.

I have the idol to take one of those 3 out at 7 (or 8 if The Golden Girls are immune). One I could get rid of at 4 to avoid getting Candiced (probably Penner? he's shit at challenges). Which leaves 5 or 6. Granted, this thinking is what took me out in Faroe but


2)
Fuck trustworthiness. People will act in their best interest irregardless of loyalty and strength of their word.

Who I feel like keeping me is in the best interest of is:
Tier 1) Ozzy, Penner (probably Penner > Ozzy, because Ozzy has better connections with the potential goats)
Tier 2) Sierra, Hayden (probably Sierra > Hayden, because Sierra's aware that it's easiest to throw me under the bus)
Tier 3) Sugar
Tier 4) Heidi, Tammy (but they have other people to target)

[Nate]

- Fri Oct 14, 2016 4:11:44 am #5503 Other pseduo-related thoughts:
> Wow, ponderosa must be so lit right now for you guys
> Penner is saying that the reason he flipped was because of the "oh no i forgot to play the necklace" idiocy, which granted I told him. But that CAN'T BE IT, Sierra has been saying they had a group chat from the morning, but timezones may come into play there.
> Forgot to mention it because this is one of the minor things that tick me off, but during the Dan boot, Tammy sent a PM to our group chat saying "i don't feel safe until the four of us have the majority" and then sent me and Ozzy both follow-ups saying "oh I meant to exclude Val" but that's like, bad math. Just period.

[Nate]

- Fri Oct 14, 2016 4:16:40 am #5507 Also, I may do a video confessional over the weekend if my voice isn't complete crap. I won't be here because I don't put effort into making these weird hours when I don't have to, but this'll be fun.

[Kelly Wigles]

- Fri Oct 14, 2016 4:46:18 am #5523 Sure! Flicka was doing audio confessionals.

[Kelly Wigles]

- Fri Oct 14, 2016 4:47:25 am #5524

Other pseduo-related thoughts:
> Wow, ponderosa must be so lit right now for you guys
> Penner is saying that the reason he flipped was because of the "oh no i forgot to play the necklace" idiocy, which granted I told him. But that CAN'T BE IT, Sierra has been saying they had a group chat from the morning, but timezones may come into play there.
> Forgot to mention it because this is one of the minor things that tick me off, but during the Dan boot, Tammy sent a PM to our group chat saying "i don't feel safe until the four of us have the majority" and then sent me and Ozzy both follow-ups saying "oh I meant to exclude Val" but that's like, bad math. Just period.

also from this, does it feel like the game is really starting to ramp and people are showing their true colors?

[Nate]

- Fri Oct 14, 2016 11:55:13 am #5561 Ish? I feel like Penner is the only one who's seemingly shifted gears at this point. I feel like a lot of people are just a bit more stressed out than others.

[Kelly Wigles]

- Fri Oct 14, 2016 5:01:33 pm #5567 Who have you been talking to regularly in the tribe? This being one of our long rounds, how much do you think can be accomplished over the next few days?

[Jeff Probst]

- Fri Oct 14, 2016 6:37:56 pm #5575 So keeping the theme of best interests going... Who do you think the tribe views as the biggest threats. Could you make a list of who you think should go each round based on threat level as perceived by the tribe? Also, as a practice of self-evaluation. Could you put yourself in that list and predict where you think the tribe will view you as the biggest threat left in the game?

[Nate]

- Sat Oct 15, 2016 12:29:23 am #5584 I feel like the specific numbers within the gaps are relatively interchangeable, but this is who I feel like are seen as the biggest threats. I may be a bit higher in the short-term parce que Hidden Immunity Idol.

1) Ozzy
[gap]
2) Sierra
3) Heidi
[gap]
4) Tammy
5) Nate
6) Penner
[gap]
7) Sugar
8) Hayden

I feel like I may be a bit spaces higher in the list than I like to admit, but I've made an effort to be more invisible from the Dan boot until now to kind of get a bit more security. I feel like my way to the end relies on Ozzy and Sierra being bigger threats than me though.

[Jeff Probst]

- Sat Oct 15, 2016 5:38:35 am #5590

I feel like the specific numbers within the gaps are relatively interchangeable, but this is who I feel like are seen as the biggest threats. I may be a bit higher in the short-term parce que Hidden Immunity Idol.

1) Ozzy
[gap]
2) Sierra
3) Heidi
[gap]
4) Tammy
5) Nate
6) Penner
[gap]
7) Sugar
8) Hayden

I feel like I may be a bit spaces higher in the list than I like to admit, but I've made an effort to be more invisible from the Dan boot until now to kind of get a bit more security. I feel like my way to the end relies on Ozzy and Sierra being bigger threats than me though.

Where you have that now puts you in the exact same scenario as last season. Outside of the final 3 and voting on Penner.

[Nate]

- Sat Oct 15, 2016 11:42:40 am #5597 1)
I didn't vote for Penner

2)
I'm definitely aware of that and keeping that on my mind. At least this time I have the idol in my backpocket in case anything bad happens, and there's also the fact that I'm hoping on/relying on that Tammy / Sugar and Tammy / Penner would not be able to work together so I can more freely target Penner.

I've been going over different endgame scenarios in the end, and all of them feature me voting out Penner at 6. I'm not sure how much of this

If we vote Heidi out this round, that means Sierra would have to go 7 (because Hayden/Sierra/Sugar become a majority) and then that's probably where I have to vote out Penner. Granted, it's not completely lost on me that's the exact same move Penner pulled on me in Faroe, which granted might be why I want to do it.

He does know I have the idol which may get me worried getting voted out at 7. But I think he's equally as afraid of the minorities/racial non-minorities getting the majority which is probably why Heidi is the best move this round.

But yeah, voting off Penner BEFORE the Final 5 is definitely in the cards because if he makes the Final 5 he probably wins in the exact same way he did Faroe.

Hell, you can even argue the Val boot is his version of the Jessica boot and I'm more of the Penner in this situation.

[Nate]

- Mon Oct 17, 2016 12:48:08 am #5627 Did not see Micronesian National Anthem until now. Shite.

[Nate]

- Tue Oct 18, 2016 3:17:30 am #5833 I'm thinking this through.

If I play the idol on Penner, I'm betting that both Ozzy and Penner are bigger targets than me and will be taken out before me.

On the other hand, if I don't play the idol on Penner, I'm betting that Ozzy/I can win over Heidi/Tammy and play the middle until the end.

But fuck it? Need something on my CV.

[Nate]

- Tue Oct 18, 2016 3:20:20 am #5843 Wait. I just realized the do option requires Heidi and Sugar working together.

That ain't gonna happen. *woosh*

[Nate]

- Tue Oct 18, 2016 3:31:07 am #5866 goddamnit they voted for Ozzy didn't they

I have a 1/3 hit rate for idols. That's worse than [sports reference]

[Nate]

- Tue Oct 18, 2016 3:38:10 am #5876 An ironic twist on the "N8 gets Tribal Wrong"

[Nate]

- Thu Oct 20, 2016 11:37:46 am #6611 Now that Ozzy said that he was in it, I guess not from a loyalty perspective- fuck that, but from a strategy perspective - I feel like at that stage of the game if everybody is kind of unanimous on something, SOMEBODY made a mistake and I guess in this case it was Sierra, Sugar and probably Ozzy.

If either of them told me, I would have voted for who they wanted and they would get a clean elimination.

This may be from my already eliminated Thursday morning quarterback self-centric perspective, but if the reason for getting me out was the idol, doing that would knock out two birds with one stone.

I guess because Heidi/Tammy were immune, Ozzy probably felt that Penner was better to take to the end than me and Sierra just wanted one of us (which theoretically should have worked so I guess it's not really her fault) and something like that isn't really Sugars game plan - especially because I don't think I would have believed her.

So I guess my real mistake in this game was that I lost strategic positioning - I was hoping that they were interpreting it as them not having enough reason to get rid of me, but when Heidi/Tammy are immune - everyone had a reason to keep than me.

I guess the thing for me to figure out was what would have happened if Heidi lost immunity. Would it be her or me?

But gg Hayden I guess.